Can anyone please give a clear logic for the chances increasing to 2/3 instead of 1/2 and also tell me why i got those values with my program? However, you are actually much more likely to win if you switch. One aspect of statistics is determining “how much” information is needed to have confiidence in a theory. Still not convinced? As stated in the article no matter how many coin flips come up heads the chances are still 50-50 that the next one will be heads too. Without any evidence, two theories are equally likely. Since the two probabilities are connected, they are multiplied. When the contestant selects a door, she is dividing the doors into two sets: A) The doors she DID select, and B) the doors she did NOT select. you stick to your inital pick If you’re stumped and still don’t believe it — don’t worry, even mathematicians scratch their head on this one. A winner and a looser. She picked notebook (A). The best way I’ve seen the odds explained (sorry, I can’t remember where – but I can’t take credit) – is to show all the possible outcomes and calculate the odds at each step. What doors would this senario leave Monty? Now i have finally understood the logic.
There are 3 doors and your original choice gives you odds of 1/3. In general, more information means you re-evaluate your choices. But this overlooks something. He has to select the one without the prize. Every 15 minutes or so, a draw would be made and one entry from that period would win. While your original odds (1/300) remain the same for that randomly chosen door (door 1), Monty has given you increased odds by giving you the best door out of 298 randomly chosen doors. Since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here, I’ll explain…” Monty helps us by “filtering” the bad choices on the other side. You can apply maths to Deal or No Deal to see if the banker’s offer is good or bad. I am not accounting for that here.].
then So here you have (A), (B), and (C). STAYING: The Monty Hall Problem. Here’s an easier way: If I pick a door and hold, I have a 1/3 chance of winning. SWITCHING It becomes an “Emperor’s New Clothes” scenario, where no one wants to admit they cannot understand the mathematician’s explanation for fear of looking stupid. No. There are 3 notebooks on a table: (A), (B), (C). This fact has been proved over and over again with a plethora of mathematical simulations. You make it easier for her by taking out of the game 1 of the remaining notebooks (B) or (C) that is sure not to have the dollar.You know (C) has the dollar so you take (B) out of the game. It is almost always 1 or 2. Said another way, do you want 1 random chance or the best of 99 random chances? • If the car is behind door 1, Monty will not choose it. When I didn’t I only won 11.
No, he is only “pulling the weeds” out of the neighbor’s lawn, not yours. Monty Hall Problem: The grand prize in Let’s Make a Deal is behind one of three doors. You pick a door (call it door A). Here’s a good way to visualize what happened. The banker works to the ‘bird in the hand’ principle, in that he offers under the average (about 2/3 of average, judging by the few times I’ve seen it). So a switch will pick 2, the only remaining door. However according to alan and the people agreeing with him the probability is supposed to double (i.e =2/3 instead of 1/2) in case of switching. Therefore, (A) has a set chance of 1/3. It is clear that the percentages tend to 1/2 and 1/3 probability, and this i can now appreciate.
If I picked two random Japanese pitchers and asked “Who is ranked higher?” you’d have no guess. The extra chance of winning comes not from the contestant actually changing their guess but from being given the opportunity to change. For scenario 1, you would win. Then Monte reveals one of the unchosen doors is a loser, and offers the contestant a chance to choose again. Monty Hall, the game show host, examines the other doors (B & C) and opens one with a goat. The best explanation I’ve seen is here and I’m now a believer, http://www.comedia.com/hot/monty-answer.html.
Hi! There are 3 notebooks on a table: (A), (B), (C). I’ll try to explain…. If you can change, and automatically do, the original choice of either B or C will win. He’ll open door 2 and show a goat 1/2 of the time.
Our imaginary Monty then proceeds to reveal goats behind 98 of the 99 doors in Set B, skipping over one seemingly random door. There are three doors, one has the car behind it. This leaves two doors. Another of the reasons some people can’t wrap their head around the Monty Hall problem is the small numbers. It seemed intuitive to most people that entering them all at once gave you greater odds – and indeed it gave you better odds of winning *in that period*…. I hope it helps. (Not a simple explanation that holds water, at any rate.)
Now, if you want to wrap your head around why it works, there are a couple of different ways to approach this. The notion actually helps a great deal to explain what’s going on here.
Back to Top. Allan has given a pretty good explanation here. P=2: Monty *must* pick door 3, since you’ve picked door 1, and the prize is behind door 2, as Monty knows. Scott Smith, Ph.D.“You blew it, and you blew it big! In this assignment, you will implement a simulation of the game show Let's Make A Deal. Now reset and play it 20 times, using a “pick and switch” approach. We can’t get a computer to have faulty reasoning. We’re starting to see why Monty’s actions help us. You’d switch to that door pretty fast, wouldn’t you?”. OK, kneller, you have a mistake here. Switching doors is simply discarding the 1/3 odds in favors of the 2/3 odds. You can then make it your strategy to first select door 1 and then plan to move to 2&3. And for the other two scenarios you would lose. You mark one square as the one you guess it’s under. Monty could add 50 doors, blow the other ones up, do a voodoo rain dance — it doesn’t matter. There is a 2/3 chance of (B) or (C) containing the dollar. This gives you 2/3 odds of winning. The qualities of mathmatics that irritate the author (mostly for comic effect, I assume!) Do I need any explanation at all? Does it matter?
That statement probably just messed up your thinking but it worked for me. Monty shows you a goat behind door 2. Instead of turning it over, we then start turning over other cards, one by one. HELP!! Other than the “no previous gameplay”, this is the scenario you’re presented with in Monte’s game, no? And I now wonder what are the odds that I will ever fully grasp this article. Simple. Google “Monty Hall Problem” and you’ll get several hundred thousand pages. Monty gives you 6 doors: you pick 1, and he divides the 5 others into a group of 2 and 3.
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