Caveat: this is only one man’s opinion and please don’t trade based on this alone. But the similarity ends here.
This is where I predicted that the DJIA will exceed 27000 latest by mid-May. The DJIA futures were down about 150 points until about an hour ago. Yep, Mr. Niederhoffer who had begun trading again in 1998 after his debacle in 1997! That is his right but he does not speak for me! 2 Comments on Two Days Of Negative Divergences. I call this the credibility gap of the market–the difference between the current level of the market versus the level dictated by market fundamentals, the most important of which is the rate of growth in corporate earnings. For a myriad of geo-political and macro-economic reasons–some of which I have written about on this blog and some others I am still researching–the primary trend of the stock market should change from bullish (called accurately in my post of March 30th, titled,”Rally Targets” and in the March 26th post,”Tomorrow Will Be A Consolidation Day“) to bearish right about now.
There were 300 more issues declining than advancing. Hopefully, my postings on this blog have helped you in deciphering the message of the market. The market psychology has definitely changed to market dropping on “good” news. here on Dec. 18th, I worried about the High Frequency Trading Firms taking the market down sharply intraday and then bringing it back up to the unchanged level to run all the stops.
In my Jan. 7th post (“Nailed it Again!“), I gave targets for five major indices to be achieved by Jan. 14th. The sharp decline of the last few days must have made at least some of them teeter on the brink and I have a hunch we will hear about that soon. Trade accordingly but always with an exit point in mind or via an actual stop-loss order. The most important variables to watch are JPM & XLF. In any event, the upside potential in the market from the levels of today is only about 2% and the downside move coming after that (or starting tomorrow) has a very good chance of taking the DJIA below 24000 by the first week of July. The market may open weak tomorrow but should turn up during the day.
I launched this blog on December 9, 2018 and now, a year and a half later, the readership has grown way beyond what I expected. I may have an intraday post here tomorrow. Well, traders took it to heart and piled into risk-on trades (buying stocks) from the start today.
If history is repeating itself, the next breakout in the market should be to the upside!
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